ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 200 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 VALID 12Z MON JUN 16 2014 - 12Z FRI JUN 20 2014 SINCE YESTERDAY... THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE STUCK WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE NAEFS MEAN... A BLEND OF THE GEFS AND CMC MEMBERS... LIES CLOSER TO THE ECENS MEAN. MULTIPLE PLAYERS IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW APPEAR TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DIVERGENT FORECASTS... INCLUDING AN UPPER LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK AND IN THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA... AND THE EXTENT OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NEAR/OVER THE ALEUTIANS INTO SW OR S-CENTRAL ALASKA LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF THE GEFS TO BE UNDER AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL AS THE SHIFT IN THE WPC FORECAST YESTERDAY... FELT COMPELLED TO MORE OR LESS STAY THE COURSE VIA A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND NAEFS MEAN. IN-HOUSE CLUSTERING ALGORITHM SHOWS THE LARGEST CLUSTER FAVORING A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH... WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOWER SOLUTION UPSTREAM OVER/NEAR ALASKA. SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS DIFFER AS WELL BETWEEN THE ECENS/GEFS... WITH THE PRECIP FOCUS ON THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET AND EASTERN KENAI INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND VIA A SLOWER SOLUTION. GEFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST BUT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE INTERIOR INTO THE NORTH SLOPE THANKS TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW. FRACASSO