ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 215 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014 VALID 12Z SUN JUL 13 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 17 2014 ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A LEAD SYSTEM THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SUN/D4 AND THEN ALLOW ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND HEAD TOWARD KODIAK AND THE GULF. THE ECENS MEAN REMAINS THE BEST GUIDE TO THE FORECAST. ...SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS AND THE PANHANDLE... LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HRS AGO... WITH THE PARENT UPPER/SFC LOW CYCLONICALLY WOBBLING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ECMWF REMAINS NEAR ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN CARRYING TRAILING ENERGY OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARD KODIAK WITH THE FRONT INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. QUESTION REMAINS IF THE SECOND LOW WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE PARENT LOW... PER THE ECMWF... OR KEEP EAST ENOUGH TO REMAIN SEPARATE. ONGOING PREFERENCE IS FOR A SHARPER UPPER PATTERN... AND A MORE COMBINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. PRECIP SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS... EASTERN KODIAK... WEST SIDE OF THE COOK INLET... EASTERN KENAI... AND NW PWS. ...INTERIOR TO THE NORTH SLOPE... BIGGER ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO THE ENSEMBLES NORTH OF ABOUT 65N... AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN RATHER INSISTENT ON BRINGING ENERGY FROM THE ARCTIC SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT BY MON/D5 WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH THIS EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF 70N. THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS MANY EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIMILAR TO IT.. ONLY A FEW ARE AS STRONG OR STRONGER. WOULD PREFER A WEAKER SOLUTION... LIKE THE EC MEAN... THAT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/GEFS DUE TO THE UPSTREAM PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABSORPTION OF TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI... AS WELL AS ONGOING CONTINUITY. ENSEMBLES INDICATE A HIGH CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN NEAR AND JUST WEST OF BETTLES... THOUGH THE GEFS FOCUS THIS JUST NORTH ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE... IN LINE WITH ITS MORE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY. FRACASSO