ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 228 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 VALID 12Z SUN JUL 20 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 24 2014 THE DISINTEGRATION OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS, OF COURSE, NOT COMFORTING FOR SORTING OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY. IN SOME WAYS, THOUGH, THERE IS HOPE IN ALL THE MURK. UNTIL ABOUT THIS PAST MONDAY JULY 14, THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS WERE INDICATING AN UNSETTLED--EVEN STORMY--PERIOD AHEAD FOR THE ALASKA REGION. THE THEN-PROMISED WET OUTLOOK WOULD HAVE COME ABOUT VIA A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS ALASKA'S ARC OF THE HIGH LATITUDES--NAMELY, A BREAKING DOWN OF THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING SIGNAL THAT HAS RULED THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT SINCE LATE LAST FALL. THE DISCONCERTING SHUFFLING OF THE MODELS SINCE MONDAY MARKS, IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THE RESOLUTION OF THE RETURN OF THE BLOCK. VIEWED FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, IT IS ONLY NATURAL THAT THE MODELS ARE BEING LEAD A MERRY CHASE--FLIPFLOPPING FROM PHASED STREAMS TO THE ORDERLY, NO MAN'S LAND CHARACTERISTIC OF BLOCKS. IT IS IN THIS SENSE, THEN, THAT THE RATHER DULL MANUAL CHARTS FOR MUCH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD--BASED ON THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN--MAY PROVE A SAFER BET THAN THE SHORT RANGE FREE FOR ALL. CISCO