ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 254 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 VALID 12Z MON AUG 25 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 29 2014 ACTIVE PATTERN FOR ALASKA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE... WITH POOR CONTINUITY WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES AND ESPECIALLY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. ONE OF THE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LIES WITH THE HANDLING OF ENERGY NEAR THE GULF OF OKHOTSK/KAMCHATKA THIS WEEKEND. EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WITH AN ALMOST UNILATERAL TREND TOWARD A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW... IT IS HARD TO IGNORE. HOWEVER... THE EC ENSEMBLES ARE OVERALL STRONGEST WITH THIS WESTERN UPPER LOW WHILE THE 06Z GEFS MEMBERS ARE IN BETWEEN THE STRONGER EC MEMBERS AND WPC CONTINUITY. THE RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS DEPART FROM THE BROAD GEFS/ECENS CLUSTERING BY TUE/D5 TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS RATHER THAN TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT. CONSIDERING ALL THE CHANGES OVER THE PAST 24 HRS... FELT A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WAS BEST... WHICH FAVORS THE 06Z GEFS MEAN. TO THE NORTH... TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD... THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT /AT LEAST TODAY/ FOR A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW TO PUSH TOWARD THE DATELINE IN THE ARCTIC... PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO FAR NW ALASKA AND PERHAPS OVERTAKING THE SYSTEM TO ITS SOUTH. RAINY/WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER SW AREAS WHILE THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THE LEAD SYSTEM PASSES EAST INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF AVERAGE STATE-WIDE. FRACASSO