ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 203 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 VALID 12Z THU AUG 28 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 01 2014 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DECENT CONTINUITY ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER ALASKA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG 160W WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MORE OR LESS STATIONARY IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THE GEFS MEMBERS REMAIN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER IN THE RECENT GUIDANCE... AND WERE AGAIN DISCOUNTED. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND AGAIN HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THU-SAT/D4-6. TO THE WEST... THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSES THE BERING SEA AND HEADS TOWARD THE GULF VIA THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN BEFORE DROPPING THE GFS BY SUN/D7 AS IT TAKES THE SFC LOW INTO INTERIOR ALASKA WHILE THE GOING PREFERENCE HAS BEEN FOR THE TRIPLE POINT LOW TO SLIDE EAST AND/OR REFORM NEAR KODIAK AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS BETTER BUT REMAINS QUICKER THAN ITS MEAN WITH ADDITIONAL TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT THAT PUSHES THE FRONT QUICKLY EAST. TO THE NORTH AND WEST... INCOMING UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2 STD DEV BELOW CLIMO /500MB HEIGHTS/ AND WILL EASE A FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR. 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH UPPER LOW CENTER TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY NEXT WEEK. FRACASSO