ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 135 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 VALID 12Z SAT NOV 29 2014 - 12Z WED DEC 03 2014 WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC GFS DAY4/SAT BEFORE SWITCHING TO A LONE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 5-8. THE SINGLE MODEL THEN LONE ENSEMBLE MEAN CHOICES WERE USED IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN SYSTEM DEFINITION CONSISTENT WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. MIXED IN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRID ROUGH EDGES GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. THIS INCLUDES THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS FROM GMOS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT THE 00 UTC GFS HOLDS ONTO A BIT MORE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND AFTER WFO ANC COORDINATION THIS SEEMS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS BUMPING INTO THE BLOCKING BUT ALSO SLOWLY WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM ALASKAN MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL NERN TROUGH ENERGIES AND ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED AREAS OF WINDS/WAVES AND ORGANIZED PCPN ARE THEN SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND NRN PACIFIC TO OVER THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD MANIFEST DEEPER LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH A DAY 4-6 SAT-TUE DEPICTION TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SRN BERING SEA BEFORE REFORMATION OVER THE GULF OF AK IN ABOUT A WEEK CONSISTENT WITH UPPER SUPPORT TRANSLATION...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO SW/SRN AK THEN SERN AK PCPN. SCHICHTEL