ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 252 PM EST WED JAN 07 2015 VALID 12Z SUN JAN 11 2015 - 12Z THU JAN 15 2015 UPPER RIDGING BRIDGED BETWEEN EASTERN ASIA AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN WILL FAVOR UPPER TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD/MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD SOUTHERN/COASTAL ALASKA. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MORE DEFINED SYSTEMS THOUGH THE SPREAD WITHIN EACH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM PRECLUDES ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. NEVERTHELESS... THEIR CONTINUITY FROM 24 HRS AGO WAS AT LEAST AVERAGE WITH NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A BLEND AMONG THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE MEANS DAMPENED SOME SFC LOWS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS ANYWAY BUT STILL MAINTAINED DETAIL. PARALLEL GFS WAS A BIT DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TIMING BUT WOULD STILL FALL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS INTO THE PANHANDLE THANKS TO RATHER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY UNTIL PERHAPS LATER NEXT WEEK... DEPENDING ON HOW/IF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GULF AS THE UPPER LOW CREEPS PAST 170W. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. FRACASSO