ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 328 PM EDT THU APR 02 2015 VALID 12Z MON APR 06 2015 - 12Z FRI APR 10 2015 THE DAYS 4-8 FORECAST SHOWS 2 PRIMARY LOWS TRACKING FROM THE BERING SEA ACROSS THE UPPER ALEUTIANS AND FINALLY INTO THE GULF OF AK. WHILE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE CIRCULATIONS...MUCH OF INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST AK WILL HAVE 700 MB TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...SO THERE WILL BE LARGER AREAS OF ABV NORMAL THAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A TREND TOWARDS CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE FIRST PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE SFC LOW PROJECTED TO CROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA DAY 4 12Z MON TO THE UPPER ALEUTIANS DAY 5 12Z TUE AND THEN NEAR KODIAK ISLAND 12Z WED. THE 12Z GFS MADE A MARKED SHIFT SOUTH FROM ITS 00-06Z RUNS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS NUDGED THE SFC LOW NORTH TO BRING THE SOLUTIONS INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS TAKEN...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE VALUES AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO CONVERGING WELL. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF AK WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE OCCLUDING LOW DECAYS OFF THE SOUTH AK COAST. THE NEXT MAJOR CYCLONE STARTS TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA WED AND THU 08-09 APR. THE 00-12Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE A SIMILAR TRACK BUT SEVERAL HOURS DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF HOW QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF AK. A TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND DRIFT EAST OF KODIAK AFTER 00Z THU AND MEANDER IN THE GULF OF AK INTO FRI. THE DAY 4 FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GEFS MEAN. WITH THE GFS BECOMING AN OUTLIER DAYS 6-7 WED-THU...THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WAS TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GEFS/NAEFS AND ECMWF MEANS. THE 12Z GFS CHANGES TO CREATE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST AK NEXT THU 09 APR AND ALSO MOVING THE AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BERING SEA ACROSS THE CHUKOTKA PENINSULA LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z GFS RUN. PETERSEN