ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 125 PM EDT MON APR 06 2015 VALID 12Z FRI APR 10 2015 - 12Z TUE APR 14 2015 AFTER A COUPLE FORECAST CYCLES OF BLENDING THE GFS AND ECMWF, FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE THE DAY TO LEAN TO THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE COIN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ROCK-SOLID CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THE TRIPLE-POINT LOW SKIRTING THE SOUTH COAST (NOW) AT THE EARLY-DAY-FOUR TIME RANGE. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO PROVEN UNWAVERING IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE BIG CYCLONE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG 45N SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER BIG CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE SHAPE AHEAD OF THE ONE ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS--A SYSTEM THE CENTER OF WHICH WAS PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS TO BE APPROACHING OR PASSING 50N/140W 12Z MONDAY APRIL 13. THE 06Z/06 GFS SHEARED THAT STORM APART, SENDING A TIGHT CENTER INTO THE PANHANDLE AT THAT FORECAST TIME. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL HAD NO LOW AT ALL. PERHAPS A ROBUST BLEND OF THE OTHERWISE STEADY ECMWF WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 7 AND 8 WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT SYSTEM. CISCO