ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 143 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 VALID 12Z TUE JUN 02 2015 - 12Z SAT JUN 06 2015 AFTER MANY DAYS OF PREDICTING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FOR NEARLY ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS HAVE NOW SETTLED ON A STORMIER REGIME FOR THE GULF, WITH THE EASTERLIES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ANCHORAGE BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE 06Z/29 GFS WAS STRONGLY CORRELATED WITH THE 00Z/29 ECENS MEAN, MAKING IT AN ATTRACTIVE CHOICE AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST. SUCH CROSS-MODEL AGREEMENT--ESPECIALLY WHEN ANCHORED BY BROAD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT--IS ALWAYS AUSPICIOUS. THE 00Z/29 ECMWF WAS NOT AS WELL CORRELATED WITH ITS MEAN, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE CURRENT BLEND. BESIDES THE INCREASED WINDS, WAVES, AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF, THE SHIFT IN THE MODELS NOW MEANS THAT INSTEAD OF A HOT, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT FOR THE SOUTH, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND PANHANDLE. CISCO