ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1238 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 VALID 12Z SAT JUL 04 2015 - 12Z WED JUL 08 2015 THE 00Z/30 GFS WAS THE ODD-MODEL-OUT AMONG THE RECENT GUIDANCE, NEVER DEPICTING A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE ALEUTIANS OR BERING SEA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE ECMWF IS DEFINITELY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE SPRAWLING LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH ITS 12Z/29 RUN OFFERED MORE OF A PIECEMEAL SPIN-UP. LOOKING AT THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS, REVEALS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE ALEUTIAN CYCLONE DOES MOST OF ITS DEEPENING WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OR CLOSER TO THE CHAIN. IT SEEMS THAT THE FARTHER NORTH THE LOW BOMBS, THE BETTER CHANCE IT HAS OF CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS AND STILL SPINNING FORMIDABLY OVER THE BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ULTIMATELY FILLING. FEEL THAT THE ONGOING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE CONSEQUENCES DOWNSTREAM AND DISPARATE SOLUTIONS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN, IS BEST HANDLED BY AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH, WITH THE 00Z/30 ECENS MEAN TELLING THE TALE REASONABLY WELL. CISCO