ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 214 PM EDT SUN AUG 09 2015 VALID 12Z THU AUG 13 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 17 2015 MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR ALASKA STILL HAS ISSUES IN BOTH THE LONG AND SHORTWAVE PATTERNS. LARGER PICTURE TILTS EITHER TOWARD MAINTAINING TROUGHING IN THE BERING SEA -- PER THE GEFS/CMCE AND NAEFS -- OR PUSHING IT INTO WESTERN ALASKA -- PER THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES -- BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /MON 17 AUG/. CONTINUITY FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION PER THE GEFS THOUGH THE 06Z GEFS MAY BE TOO SLOW IN LIGHT OF ITS QUICKER 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. MUCH OF THE SPREAD IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LIES BEHIND ITS TROUGH AXIS... WITH MANY MEMBERS SLOWER THAN THE MEAN SO THERE IS CERTAINLY ROOM TO BE SLOWER THAN THE ECENS MEAN. FAVORED THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN THU-SAT BEFORE TRENDING TO THE 06Z GEFS MEAN WITH THE 12Z GFS... THOUGH THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS PREFERRED OVER THE 06Z RUN. MAINTAINED LEAD SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF... BUT TRAILING SYSTEMS HAD LITTLE CONTINUITY THROUGH THE BERING. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... ENSEMBLES TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DEFINED SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC RATHER THAN FROM THE NW... BUT EITHER WAY YOU END UP WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA BY NEXT MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NO BETTER THAN AVERAGE DUE TO CONTINUED ENSEMBLE SPREAD. FRACASSO