ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 248 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 VALID 12Z WED OCT 07 2015 - 12Z SUN OCT 11 2015 THE ALASKA MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A KEY PLAYER IN THE FEATURED PATTERN IS THE CLOSED LOW INVOF 36N 151W (AS OF 3/1830Z) AND ITS PROJECTED DEPTH AND MOISTURE PLUME TRAJECTORY. THE 3/00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ITS DETERMINISTIC RUN MAINTAIN VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EMERGING PATTERN AND MERGE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH ORIGINS IN THE BERING SEA---WITH THIS SUBTROPICAL CIRCULATION AND ITS MOISTURE PLUME IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BETWEEN DAYS 5-6. ALONG THIS DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA CYCLONE---THE EASTERN FLANKS---WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES---AND SEASONAL WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND WINDS. THE INTENSITY AND TRAJECTORY OF THE INDIVIDUAL WARM ADVECTION EVENTS SHOULD ALTER THE SHAPE OF THE LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION ...AND FELT THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BEST FITS THE SEQUENTIAL 'RAMPING UP' OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. IN PARTICULAR...THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SHORTWAVE IN THE DAY7 TIME FRAME...THAT HAS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AND TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN 135W-140W. VOJTESAK