ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 239 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 23 2015 - 12Z TUE OCT 27 2015 TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE HIGH LATITUDES THIS WEEK... WITH A FEW PLAYERS IN THE MIX. SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES. THIS TRENDS TO TROUGHING IN THE GULF AS WELL AS UPSTREAM JUST OFF KAMCHATKA AS THE UPPER HIGH IN THE ARCTIC SLOWLY DIMINISHES. THE PATTERN MAY BE PRETTY WET FOR THE PANHANDLE BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STORM TRACK. PLAYER 1 WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES EAST ALONG 35N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 170W. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE BEEN SPLIT SINCE AT LEAST YESTERDAY WITH THE ENSEMBLES FARTHER NORTH AND MANY DETERMINISTIC RUNS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE TREND HAS BEEN IN THE FAVOR OF A SLOWER/DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST SYSTEM PER THE 00Z CANADIAN... WHICH LIES IN THE BETWEEN THE FARTHER NW 00Z GFS/UKMET AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z/12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER SOUTH. QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDS INTO BC AND YUKON TO ALLOW SOME ENERGY TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE CONUS PAC NW RATHER THAN WRAP BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. FOR NOW... GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PARENT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF BUT ALLOW FOR ITS TRIPLE POINT LOW TO PUSH EASTWARD OFF THE MAP SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. A SECONDARY PART OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SFC WAVE THAT MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF NEARLY ON TOP OF WHAT THE CURRENT PROGS SHOW... BUT FROM DIFFERENT ORIGINS. LITTLE CONSENSUS ON THIS SYSTEM BUT IT MAY BECOME MORE IMPORTANT SHOULD THE LEAD SYSTEM NOTED ABOVE STAY OFF THE MAP. PLAYER 2 WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CURRENT TYPHOON CHAMPI WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF RECURVING ALONG 140E. BY NEXT SUN/MON THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TAKE THIS NEAR THE DATELINE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BUT THEN DIVERGE GREATLY. SOME MODELS MOVE THIS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS... WRAPPED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. OTHERS CONTINUE IT EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OR EVEN INTO THE GULF... AHEAD OF THAT UPPER LOW. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND CANNOT YET GET A HANDLE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS GETS PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD BY THE WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK. FRACASSO