ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1209 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 VALID 12Z TUE NOV 03 2015 - 12Z SAT NOV 07 2015 THE STANDOUT FEATURE FROM THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS THE POTENT CYCLONE PASSING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WITH THAT SYSTEM, ITS FORECAST IS FAR FROM A DONE DEAL. THE 12Z/29 ECMWF DID NOT HAVE IT, THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO SUGGEST A CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTH. CONSIDERING THE CRITICAL IMPACT OF THE LATITUDE OF AN ALEUTIAN LOW TRACK, A ROBUST INCORPORATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOULD MITIGATE LARGE SWINGS IN THE GRIDS. THE TUESDAY WAVE APPROACHING THE PENINSULA IS ALSO HANDLED DISPARATELY BY THE MODELS, SO A DETERMINISTIC-ENSEMBLE BLEND SEEMS IN ORDER AT THAT RANGE AS WELL. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE ECMWF AND GFS REALLY PART WAYS, SO MUCH SO THAT A HEAVY RELIANCE ON THE MEANS IS MEET TO CAP THE FORECAST SERIES. CISCO