ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1257 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 VALID 12Z TUE DEC 01 2015 - 12Z SAT DEC 05 2015 ...AN ENERGETIC ALASKAN WEATHER PATTERN WITH DEEP LOWS JUST OFFSHORE... ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 00 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS OFFERS GREAT WPC CONTINUITY. FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY SEEM BELOW NORMAL...AT LEAST AT MID-LARGER SCALES. THE 00 UTC ECMWF WAS INCLUDED TO PROVIDE A BIT MORE SMALLER SCALE DETAIL CONSISTENT WITH A PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL PREDICTABILITY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL THAT SEEMS SLIGHTLY MORE COMPATABLE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN RECENT GFS/CANADIAN RUNS. ...WEATHER THREATS... THIS PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS LONG DURATION DEEP LOW DEVELOPMENTS WITH HIGHLY UNSETTLED WEATHER/WINDS FROM THE SRN/ERN BERING SEA TO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF AK. THIS WILL FOCUS A HEAVY PCPN PATTERN INLAND INTO COASTAL SRN AND ESPECIALLY SERN AK AS FURTHER ENHANCED INTO FAVORED TERRAIN. EXPECT MORE MODEST ORGANIZED PCPN ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS/SW AK. EXPECT MUCH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE/SNOW AND SOME SURFACE FRONTAL COOLING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN FROM NRN AK UNDER A MEAN INTERIOR/ERN AK RIDGE ALOFT. SCHICHTEL