ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 17 2016 - 12Z THU JAN 21 2016

The 13/00Z ECENS/NAEFS MEANS --- BLENDED AT A 60/40 RATIO OFFERED
THE BEST CONTINUITY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
SCENARIO ANCHORS ANOTHER DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE AND BROAD---BUT
MULTI-FACETED OCCLUSION INVOF 52N 150W FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
DETERMINISTIC VERSION(S) OF THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCRIPTION OFFER
A SERIES OF COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MIGRATING SHORTWAVES --- WITH BURSTS
OF WARM ADVECTION RAINS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING COLD-SECTOR SHOWERS
--- NEW COLD FRONTS FORMING ALONG 150W (BETWEEN 155W-165W) AND
PULLING A 'NEW' WARM FRONT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE TRACK ALONG 50N.

THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES --- IN WET SEASON FASHION --- MIGRATE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 135W-145W LONGITUDE --- TAKING A SPLIT-TRACK
TRAJECTORY INLAND --- INTO WESTERN CANADA/ALASKA PANHANDLE...
WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA...AND PULLING A PORTION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD MARITIME AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL COAST OF THE MAINLAND (CALIFORNIA).

THIS HAS BEEN THIS EL NINO PATTERN'S MONIKER ... AND THE ENSEMBLES
SEEM TO HAVE THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN IN A
RATHER STABLE WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THIS PARTICULAR (DAY4-8) TIME
FRAME FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE ATLANTIC MARITIME PROVINCES OF
CANADA. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA --- AND THE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE ECENS/NAEFS
MEANS --- IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND 'WETTER'
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE 'PERSISTENCE' OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
AND DEEP...VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER THIRD OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

VOJTESAK