ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 146 PM EST TUE MAR 01 2016 VALID 12Z SAT MAR 05 2016 - 12Z WED MAR 09 2016 TODAY'S GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE RECENT THEME OF MAINTAINING SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION BUT WITH EMBEDDED TRENDS AND IN THE CASE OF SMALLER SCALE NERN PAC WAVES SEEMINGLY MORE RANDOM RUN TO RUN ADJUSTMENTS. OVERALL EVOLUTION FEATURES AN AXIS OF LOW HGTS ALOFT FROM THE WRN MAINLAND COAST/ERN BERING SEA SEWD INTO THE NERN PACIFIC WITH A WRN CANADA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE MAINLAND. OVER RECENT DAYS THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL TREND TOWARD A STRONGER DEPICTION OF SHORT RANGE MAINLAND ENERGY THAT SHOULD WOBBLE SWWD AND HELP TO PULL NERN PAC SFC LOW PRES NWWD. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND/ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE THE 00Z-06Z GFS/GEFS RUNS SHOW A SOMEWHAT MORE NWD TRACK DURING DAYS 4-5 SAT-SUN. A SWD TREND IN THE 12Z GFS LEADS TO A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING THE SFC LOW TRACK MORE TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND... A NWD ADJUSTMENT FROM YDAYS CONTINUITY BUT LESS EXTREME THAN THE EARLIER GFS RUNS. TO THE S/E OF THE INITIAL LOW... CONFIDENCE IS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE SPECTRUM FOR ONE OR MORE WAVES THAT COULD HAVE SOME PASSING INFLUENCE ON THE PANHANDLE AND THEN PSBLY BACK TO THE WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS HINT THAT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/OFFSHORE VERSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF RUN COULD BE PLAUSIBLE AROUND DAY 5 SUN. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC SHOW SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERING TOWARD AN UPSTREAM CNTRL PAC SYSTEM WRAPPING UP NEAR 50N AND 140-150W BY DAY 7 TUE... ULTIMATELY PULLING THE EMPHASIS FOR NERN PAC LOW PRES AWAY FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA/KODIAK ISLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. BY DAY 8 WED THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO THE BERING SEA OR LESS LIKELY THE NRN PAC... BUT WITH SPREAD THAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. PRIMARY EMPHASIS ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERS A REASONABLE STARTING POINT WHILE WAITING FOR BETTER CLUSTERING ON THE DETAILS. FROM DAY 4 SAT INTO DAY 6 MON THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN PROVIDED THE BEST OVERALL CLUSTERING WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS GIVEN MOST OF THE WEIGHTING TO ENHANCE DETAIL. AFTER EARLY MON THE FCST TAPERS OFF 12Z GFS INPUT WHILE INCREASING NAEFS/ECMWF MEAN CONTRIBUTIONS. 00Z ECMWF WEIGHTING LATE IN THE PERIOD IS JUST ENOUGH TO HELP DEEPEN THE MEANS OVER THE NERN PAC BUT SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO DOWNPLAY ITS SUPPRESSED SOLN NEAR THE ALEUTIANS BY NEXT WED. RAUSCH