ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 146 PM EST WED MAR 02 2016 VALID 12Z SUN MAR 06 2016 - 12Z THU MAR 10 2016 FORECAST LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AKPEN WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OVER THE FAR WEST ALEUTIANS BREAKS DOWN AND DIVES SOUTHWARD. THIS KEEP THE THEME GOING OF SYSTEMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATING AS THEY HEAD NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, WITH THE WESTERN UPPER LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE STORM TRACK SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHOWN RATHER POOR CONTINUITY WITH THE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS IN AN OTHERWISE PREDICTABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW MODEST AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THEIR MEANS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH ALSO FOLLOWS ALONG ONGOING WPC CONTINUITY. USED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECENS MEAN TO BALANCE THE WAFFLING OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE SMOOTHNESS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH RIDGING POKING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER NW CANADA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG SOUTHERN AND COASTAL REGIONS AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIANS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT TO MODEST SIDE AS THE MOISTURE PLUME AXIS WILL BE POINTED INTO WASHINGTON AND SW CANADA. THOUGH SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD IN STEP WITH THE WEAKENING OCCLUSIONS, THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FRACASSO