ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 154 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 VALID 12Z TUE MAR 22 2016 - 12Z SAT MAR 26 2016 FORECASTING IS NO PICNIC ACROSS ALASKA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, AS THE 00Z ECMWF, ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE 00Z CANADIAN BROUGHT A DEFINED VORTEX INTO THE BERING SEA, WHILE THE 06Z GEFS MEAN, 06Z GFS, AND 12Z GFS DO NOT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MINIMAL DAY TO DAY CONTINUITY WITH THIS CYCLONE, WHICH LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION. ATTEMPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. PER INPUT FROM THE AFC/ANCHORAGE FORECAST OFFICE, THE CHOICE FOR THE PERIOD WAS A 40/20/20/20 COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z GEFS MEAN, 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 06Z GFS, AND 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST NEAR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS, BUT AT LEAST AVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST AK SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AS CYCLONES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR RELATIVELY MILD, WITH NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES CONSTRAINED TO THE NORTH SLOPE/NORTHEAST AK WITH 30S AND 40S EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AK. ROTH