ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 200 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 VALID 12Z SUN APR 03 2016 - 12Z THU APR 07 2016 ...ALASKAN GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... THE LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO OFFER A SIMILAR LARGER SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY A PERSISTENT AND WARMING/AMPLIFIED AND STABILIZING/SHIELDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN AXIS FROM WRN CANADA/SE AK NORTHWESTARD OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. A SERIES OF POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH/LOW ENERGIES LIFT SYSTEMS UP TOWARD AK. WHILE SOME ENERGY IS ABSORBED INTO THE LEAD RIDGE ALOFT...SYSTEMS MAINLY TEND TO DIVERT ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY OVER A STORMY NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK TO SRN BERING SEA TO PRODUCE EHHANCED WIND/WAVES AND ORGANIZED PCPN THAT ALSO FEEDS INLAND INTO THE ALAKSAN SWRN AND SRN TIERS...WITH MUCH LESSER ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER FURTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE LOWS STILL SEEM TO HAVE GOOD SATELLITE OBSERVED TO SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNATURES/TRACKS AND THAT SHOULD PORTEND BETTER THAN AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY OVERALL AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 5/MONDAY. USED A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 12 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DURING THIS PERIOD. BY DAYS 6-8...THESE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY NATURE SHOW LESS RUN-RUN VARIANCE THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND OFFER DECENT LOW DEPICTIONS OFFSHORE GIVEN FORECAST SPREAD/AVERAGING. THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE 50-50 BLEND OF THE COMPATABLE 00 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 6-8. THE 06 UTC GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC NAEFS MEAN ALSO ARE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE AS WELL. THIS COORDINATED SOLUTION MAINTAINS GREAT CONTINUITY. SCHICHTEL