ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 129 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 VALID 12Z THU MAY 19 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 23 2016 THE SLOW BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS STILL MET WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FOCUS WILL BE ON HOW THE INCOMING SYSTEM TOWARD/ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS LATE THU INTO FRI WILL PLAY OUT. THE PAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE STRAYED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE OTHERWISE GOOD CONSENSUS, WEAKENING THE LEAD LOW AND TAKING A LAGGING SFC WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD KODIAK. MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET MAINTAIN CONTINUITY -- MORE OR LESS -- AND TAKE THE MAIN LOW NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT, WHICH ALLOWS RIDGING TO POKE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE OF SOMETHING LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION -- WHICH MAY TEMPER THE RIDGE -- SIDED WITH THE CONSENSUS VIA THE 06Z/12Z GFS, 06Z GEFS MEAN, AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. LATEST 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET STAY THE COURSE LIKE THE 12Z GFS. FOR SAT-MON, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA BUT WITH A GENERAL FLATTENING OF THE UPSTREAM PATTERN NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS ON THE HORIZON. FRACASSO