ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 157 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 VALID 12Z MON JUN 06 2016 - 12Z FRI JUN 10 2016 A MEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALASKA THROUGH DAY 5/TUE BEFORE BECOMING REPLACED WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW SIMULTANEOUSLY FORMS OVER THE BERING SEA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TRANSITION IS MORE AMBIGUOUS HOWEVER DUE TO THE ARRAY OF SHORT WAVELENGTH ELEMENTS AND STREAMS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO RAPIDLY GROWING SPREAD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD A NEAR EQUAL BLEND OF SEVERAL OR MORE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOULD SUFFICE THAT HELPS TO MAINTAIN AS MUCH RESOLUTION AS POSSIBLE...WHILE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS A NEAR EQUAL BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IS PREFERRED DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. THESE BLENDS SHOULD CAPTURE THE SEPARATION OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE DEVELOPS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE THE BROAD LOW FORMS FARTHER WEST. THE PREVALENCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS WHILE POSSIBLE REDUCING ACROSS THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BEGINS REFORMING ACROSS THE NORTH. JAMES