ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 317 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 VALID 12Z MON JUN 20 2016 - 12Z FRI JUN 24 2016 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE 12Z/06Z GFS, 06Z GEFS, AND 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING THE BEST CLUSTERING. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SHORTWAVES AND WEAK UPPER LOWS TO PUSH EASTWARD BETWEEN 50-60N WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR MODEST TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME DIFFERENCES SEPARATE THE ECMWF AND ITS MEAN FROM THE GFS AND ITS MEAN, MOST NOTABLE IN THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA. A CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH SEEMED TO WORK WELL AS A STARTING POINT GIVEN SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF RUNS. ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT MORE SFC LOW REFLECTION NEAR KODIAK BY NEXT FRI/D8 RATHER THAN MAINTAINING A LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING PER THE RECENT GFS RUNS, BUT CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE ANYWAY. FRACASSO