ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 345 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 VALID 12Z MON JUL 18 2016 - 12Z FRI JUL 22 2016 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA EARLY IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND REACH THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS NEARLY SMOOTH OUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD BUT THE MORNING OPERATIONAL FORECASTS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A MORE COHERENT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL AS AN ENSEMBLE OF RATHER SCATTERED BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS. IN GENERAL...THERE IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THEIR MEANS WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES FORECAST WITHOUT ANY TOTALLY OUT OF PHASE SYSTEMS THROUGH DAYS 7 AND 8/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY GOOD FOR 7 AND 8 DAY FORECASTS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND IN BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN AND 12Z GFS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE SOLUTION. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED POSSIBLY SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS THE PROBABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS COULD BE COMMON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL AREA. IN ADDITION...ANY SHORTWAVE SYSTEM...SUCH AS THAT SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS MOVING EASTWARD COULD ALSO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A DEEP UPPER LOW ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF ALASKA/YUKON IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NUNAVUT THAT APPEARS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. WHILE THE FORECAST HAS MODEL CONSISTENCY THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH CONFLUENT FLOW BEHIND KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. KOCIN