ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 254 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 VALID 12Z TUE OCT 11 2016 - 12Z SAT OCT 15 2016 ...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL INITIALLY BE DOMINATED BY A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE HIGH-LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK. ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AK AND INTO THE POLAR REGION. FARTHER UPSTREAM...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ANCHOR MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MOVING AHEAD...THIS LATTER FEATURE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER THE ALEUTIANS/ADJACENT BERING SEA. GRADUALLY THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH A REMNANT UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING NORTH OF AK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A CASCADE OF SHORTWAVES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD WESTERN CANADA. REGARDING THE GUIDANCE...THE 12Z/06Z GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF THE STRONGER CONSENSUS WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE WAS A MUCH STRONGER GROUPING AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TO THE SOUTH. UTILIZED THIS COMBINATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINED IN THE MIX THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE DEFERRING TO ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY GIVEN ITS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT TO ITS PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES. ...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND AK AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE DECREASING LENGTH OF DAYLIGHT. THE WET WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO EXTREME WESTERN MAINLAND AK WITHIN THE MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK. POPS SHOULD COME UP A BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AK AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES BY MID-WEEK. RUBIN-OSTER