ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016 VALID 12Z TUE OCT 18 2016 - 12Z SAT OCT 22 2016 THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MEAN CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ADJACENT ALEUTIANS. THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY IN NATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE GATHERING SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTH. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE PROPAGATING TOWARD COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER IN THE PERIOD. THROUGH DAY 5...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF APPEARED REASONABLE GIVEN THEIR SOLUTIONS WERE WELL SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. WHERE THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS IS FROM STRONG HEIGHT FALLS BACK TOWARD THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS SUITE HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE BERING SEA. AFTER SOME DISCUSSIONS WITH LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES ACROSS THE REGION...FELT IT WAS BEST TO MINIMIZE SUCH CONTRIBUTIONS INTO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THUS...LEANED MORE MORE HEAVILY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM DAY 6 ONWARD. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FAVOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN AK WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LIKELY EARLY/MID WEEK. RUBIN-OSTER