ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 137 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016 VALID 12Z WED OCT 19 2016 - 12Z SUN OCT 23 2016 THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RETROGRESSION TO CEASE AROUND THE START OF DAY 4/WED...BEFORE BECOMING BROADLY AND AT TIMES STRONGLY CYCLONIC ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC FLOW MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY EQUALLY AMPLIFIED AND STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SPLIT NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA. OVERALL...MODEL SPREAD AND CONTINUITY ARE ABOUT TYPICAL FOR THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN...WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION FALLS TO BELOW AVERAGE BEGINNING WED AND LASTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE. MOST PRONOUNCED IS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH ITS MOST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ON WED...WHICH LIES NEAR THE OUTER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR GFS CYCLE IS EQUALLY LOW DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN IN CONSISTENCIES. REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS...THE PATTERN APPEARS WET WITH SOME HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHEAST...WITH PERHAPS DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOLING TREND INLAND WITH DEVELOPING OR REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL. JAMES