ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 423 PM EDT FRI NOV 04 2016 VALID 12Z TUE NOV 08 2016 - 12Z SAT NOV 12 2016 MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG JET DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF ALASKA AND STRONG RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CONUS. TO THE NORTH, AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER IN THE ARCTIC BEFORE POSSIBLY GETTING PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT. THE ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED WAVES. INDIVIDUAL TIMING/STRENGTH OF SFC LOWS/FRONTS IS, AS EXPECTED, NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT, BUT A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH SERVED AS A GOOD STARTING POINT. THE 12Z GFS, 06Z GEFS, AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN WAS USED AS A BASIS. THE 00Z ECMWF DIFFERED FROM MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE HANDLING OF TROPICAL STORM MEARI AS IT IS FORECAST TO RECURVE WELL EAST OF JAPAN NEXT WEEK (TAKING IT NORTH RATHER THAN EAST). THIS LIES JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST DOMAIN. REGARDLESS, A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT FROM KAMCHATKA AND ROTATE UNDER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE NEXT WEEK (INFUSING MEARI INTO EITHER THE PARENT LOW OR TRIPLE POINT LOW) AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH OF 50N WEST OF 150W AND THEN INTO THE NE GULF AND PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRACASSO