ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 253 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016 VALID 12Z WED NOV 23 2016 - 12Z SUN NOV 27 2016 THE INITIAL UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN LEADING TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO THE NORTH OF AK SHOULD BE MORE BLOCKY IN NATURE WITH A CLOSED UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING NORTHWARD AROUND THE NORTH POLE. AS A WHOLE...THE PATTERN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS QUITE RESOLVABLE WITH MANY SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO UNFOLDING. TO COMMENCE THE PERIOD MID-WEEK...AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THESE UPSTREAM FEATURES SHOULD AMPLIFY LEADING TO FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE SOLUTIONS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA AND POINTS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST. THE 00Z CMC SEEMED TO BE MUCH DEEPER EARLY ON WHILE THE 00Z UKMET WAS SLOWER DISPLACED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IT APPEARED THE 06Z/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER. THUS...A COMBINATION OF THESE WAS RECOMMENDED THROUGH DAY 5. WHERE THE GUIDANCE BEGAN TO BREAK DOWN WAS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF THE MAP DOMAIN BY DAY 6. THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AS WELL AS THE 00Z CMC WERE MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THEIR INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN WERE MUCH MORE TAME AND WERE CLOSER TO OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS REGION CONSISTING OF A HIGH AMOUNT OF SPREAD SO WOULD PREFER TO PLAY THE REGION MORE CONSERVATIVELY. THUS...BEYOND DAY 5...STARTED TO INCORPORATE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHILE UTILIZING THE 00Z GEFS GIVEN THE ABOVE ASSESSMENT. WPC PLAYED A SPLIT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUITES EQUALLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...THE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF AK WILL FAVOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AK. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE DEEP CYCLONE APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AK. RUBIN-OSTER