ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 226 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016 VALID 12Z SAT NOV 26 2016 - 12Z WED NOV 30 2016 ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE HIGH LATITUDES, BUT GENERALLY ALONG SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS FROM THE ALEUTIANS EASTWARD TO THE PANHANDLE. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE JUST 24 HRS AGO FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST (SAT/SUN), TAKING A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE BERING AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THEREAFTER, TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO TRACK FARTHER EAST INTO THE GULF AROUND NEXT TUESDAY. FINALLY, A POTENTIALLY ROBUST SYSTEM MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN BERING NEXT WEEK MIDWEEK. USED AN ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THIS PORTION (NEXT WEDNESDAY). A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/EC-ENS MEAN WAS USED FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST, DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF THE LEAD SYSTEM (FARTHER NW IN THE 00Z ECMWF THAN THE ENSEMBLES AND GFS). QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSER RESEMBLANCE TO THE 12Z GFS. OPTED TO REMOVE THE 00Z ECMWF FROM THE BLEND WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM (NEXT TUESDAY) AS IT WAS WELL EAST OF THE CONSENSUS. NEW 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THAT EASTWARD TRACK (THOUGH THIS IS NOW THE UPGRADED ECMWF AS OF 12Z). NORTHERN ALASKA/NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW AND THE CONSENSUS BLEND WILL SUFFICE. FRACASSO