ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 301 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 03 2016 - 12Z WED DEC 07 2016 ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO OFFER AN AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING FLOW PATTERN FOR THE DAY 4 TO 8 MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND IT. FARTHER WEST...A TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVENTUALLY SPINS UP INTO ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA CYCLONE AT THE SURFACE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SUBTLE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR BOTH SYSTEMS AMONGST THE MODELS WITH MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE WHICH ONLY AMPLIFY WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE LEANS INCREASINGLY UPON GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES OVER TIME AS FORECAST SPREAD GROWS. THROUGH DAY 5 HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED MORE THAN A NORMAL AMOUNT OF INPUT FROM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS ALLOWED FOR REASONABLE GOOD WPC CONTINUITY FOR MOST SYSTEMS. ...HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... THE FIRST CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BRINGS WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE FAVORED TERRAIN DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE FRONT. THE BERING SEA SYSTEM OFFERS MAINLY MARITIME WEATHER THREATS BESIDES SOME SPREADING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. TO THE NORTH OF BOTH SYSTEMS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND HOLDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND COLDER PATTERN. SANTORELLI