ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 234 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2016 VALID 12Z WED DEC 07 2016 - 12Z SUN DEC 11 2016 ...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE PANHANDLE NEXT WEEK... ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... NO BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER AROUND WRANGEL ISLAND WHICH SUPPORTS TROUGHING THROUGH THE INTERIOR BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE GULF. GFS CONTINUES TO MOSTLY TAKE AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLES, THOUGH ITS 00Z PARALLEL RUN WAS FARTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET. USED THAT LARGER CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A STARTING POINT TO THE FORECAST. THIS MADE FOR A LITTLE SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE FORECAST YESTERDAY. SYSTEM MAY TRY TO EASE NORTHWARD BUT LATEST ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS TAKES THE SFC LOW EASTWARD NEAR HAIDA GWAII, PERHAPS RELATED TO MORE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR VIA A CLOSER/STRONGER UPPER HIGH IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN/CHUKCHI SEA. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD, THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE. LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF SHOULD PREVENT MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS LONG AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST. ...HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (>1050MB) WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE YUKON AND NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA WHICH WILL SEND COLD TEMPERATURES VIA STRONG EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE (WINDS 30-40KTS POSSIBLE) WHILE THE INTERIOR STAYS TYPICALLY COLD (BUT BELOW AVERAGE) AS WELL (-30S TO -40S F). 2M TEMPERATURES VIA AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WERE STILL COLDER THAN THE STATISTICAL FORECASTS (GFSMOS AND ECMWF-BASED MOS) BUT WERE TRENDING CLOSER TOGETHER IN BETWEEN. KEPT THE INTERIOR QUITE COLD VIA THE STABLE AIRMASS. OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR THE PANHANDLE REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ATOP A COLD SURFACE AND CONTINUED BRISK EASTERLY FLOW. TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL INFLUENCE HOW FAR NORTH AND INTENSE THE SNOW MAY BE. FRACASSO