ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 214 PM EST MON JAN 02 2017 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 06 2017 - 12Z TUE JAN 10 2017 ...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE LEADS TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE... THE FLOW PATTERN FEATURES AN UPSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE EAST COAST OF ASIA AND A DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...REACHING INTO WESTERN AK LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN TURN...THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE RESULT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE A LULL IN THE PATTERN AND TRANSITION WHERE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO WARMING THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THEN ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND FURTHER EAST/INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CORE OF THE ANTICYCLONE AT 500 HPA LEADS TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...WHICH IS QUITE STRONG BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO LEADS TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PERSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL IN COASTAL SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE DEPRESSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITHIN THIS NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN OF RIDGING AND NORTHERLY, OFFSHORE FLOW OFF EASTERN AK. A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN WAS USED TO ADDRESS DETAIL ISSUES. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DAYS 6-8...ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES LIKE THE ENSEMBLES. THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN-MOST PACIFIC EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN DAY-TO-DAY CONSISTENCY IN THE PROGS AND BETTER THAN AVERAGE ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT...PLUS THE LACK OF CYCLONES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AK THIS PERIOD NEAR DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEPOSIT LIGHT AMOUNTS. ANOTHER AREA WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN/LOWER ALEUTIANS...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG HIGH. PETERSEN