ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1255 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017 VALID 12Z MON JAN 16 2017 - 12Z FRI JAN 20 2017 REINFORCED UPPER TROUGHING IS WELL-FORECAST TO REMAIN LOCKED OVER INTERIOR ALASKA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD TEMPERATURES (BELOW AVERAGE) ENTRENCHED WHILE PRECIPITATION FOCUSES ALONG THE PANHANDLE. A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THEIR RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LEAD SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY, BUT STILL VARY A BIT ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY (950S-960S MB). 00Z CANADIAN WAS WIDE RIGHT AND THE UKMET TO THE LEFT, WHILE THE GFS WAS NORTH AND THE ECMWF WAS SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS LOCATION. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AROUND WEDNESDAY BUT BY THIS POINT THE MODELS SPIN UP OTHER SMALL-SCALE LOWS THAT HAVE COME AND GONE IN RECENT RUNS. THE ECMWF OFFERED MORE CONSISTENCY BUT THAT MAY NOT MEAN TOO MUCH IN THIS PATTERN IN LIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. OPTED TO JUST BLEND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR NEXT THU/FRI AS THERE SEEMS TO BE NO SIGNAL FOR AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA. MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY ORGANIZE AND SWING AROUND THROUGH THE GULF. TEMPERATURES 10-25F BELOW AVERAGE ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS BUT NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER AND PANHANDLE. GEFS REFORECAST TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES SHOW THIS NICELY AND MATCH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND. FRACASSO