ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 140 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017 VALID 12Z THU JAN 19 2017 - 12Z MON JAN 23 2017 ...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA THIS WEEK... ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES... PATTERN TRANSITION FOR ALASKA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AREAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC AND A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE MODELS HAVE LARGELY DEVOLVED INTO A CHAOTIC MESS WITH THE MANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC LATER THIS WEEK. HAVE TRIED TO WEED OUT THE SEEMINGLY OVER-DEVELOPED MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE WHAT MAY BE TOO STRONG A LOW NORTH OF 50N THU-SAT THOUGH THE PATTERN MAY SUPPORT SOMETHING WEAKER THAN THE 12Z GFS. NEVERTHELESS, OPTED TO USE A MAJORITY ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING (06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN) WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR SLIGHT DETAILS... HOPEFULLY IN THE RIGHT PLACE. POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEADS TO DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS/TIMING UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. BY THEN, STILL A N-S SPREAD IN WHERE THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK BUT FOR NOW WILL FAVOR A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FARTHER NORTH GEFS MEAN AND FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF/CMC MEANS. ...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR ALASKA, WILL SLOWLY EASE WITH TIME NEXT WEEKEND. RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER EACH NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE ALEUTIANS AND PANHANDLE WITH LIGHTER SNOW OVER SW ALASKA AROUND THE UPPER LOW. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER AND PANHANDLE. WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR SOME AREAS WITH ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND THE COAST AND AGAIN NEAR THE POTENTIALLY ROBUST SYSTEM IN THE BERING NEXT WEEKEND. FRACASSO