ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 258 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2017 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 21 2017 - 12Z WED JAN 25 2017 THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SAT MORNING WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST TO ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST CYCLONE TO PROCEED ACROSS OR SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF OF AK. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS WRAPPED UP SYSTEM BUT REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE CONSISTENT/SLOWER ECMWF AND EC MEAN. THIS SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS IS RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WPC FEELS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS IS BEST AT THE MOMENT. THIS MEANS... TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AVG THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH GEFS/EC MEANS BEING 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVG PER 850MB TEMPS BUT GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODIFY TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG BY NEXT WED WITH THE LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE ALEUTIANS AND ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST TO THE PANHANDLE WET WITH MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. MUSHER