ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 213 PM EST THU JAN 26 2017 VALID 12Z MON JAN 30 2017 - 12Z FRI FEB 03 2017 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING A LARGE AND DEEP CYCLONE TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA BY TUESDAY THEN PIVOT NORTHWARD. WHILE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO NOT PASS BEYOND THE BLIZHNY STRAIT, THE CYCLONE'S LONG FETCH AND DEPTH SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH SEAS FOR THE ALEUTIANS. IT SHOULD ALSO HELP BUILD A RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF AK TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT. FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS...USED A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE TO ADDRESS ANY PREDICTABILITY ISSUES...WITH CONFIDENCE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT DUE TO THE BREADTH OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW. THE PATTERN APPEARS MORE PREDICTABLE THAN USUAL FOR THE LAST FRONTIER AS SYSTEMS MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE'S PERIPHERY. MOST OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING BUILDS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION IS A THING OF THE PAST FOR SOUTHEAST AK, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AK SHOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES LIE OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK NEAR THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS -- THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVING NEARBY WESTERN AK AND THE DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. ROTH/JAMES