ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 317 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2017 VALID 12Z WED FEB 1 2017 - 12Z SUN FEB 5 2017 MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN AND ADJACENT OCEAN AREAS. A RATHER PERSISTENT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALASKA BEFORE SLOWLY RETROGRADING TOWARDS EASTERN SIBERIA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR THE ALASKA MAINLAND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE WESTERN WATERS. FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS, WE USED A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE TO ADDRESS ANY PREDICTABILITY ISSUES, WITH CONFIDENCE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING AND OVERALL LONGWAVE FLOW. MORE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FEBRUARY STANDARDS WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN INTERIOR ALASKA WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND ALLOW FOR GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE WARM CORE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. Hamrick