ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 221 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017 VALID 12Z SAT FEB 11 2017 - 12Z WED FEB 15 2017 ...HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PANHANDLE NEXT WEEK... UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO TROUGHING NEAR THE BERING STRAIT NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP BUILD RIDGING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES LARGELY AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS, ESPECIALLY AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ON SAT. RECENT GFS/GEFS (00/06/12Z) DEPARTED FROM ENSEMBLE CONTINUITY WITH A SHORTWAVE (OR WEAKENING UPPER LOW) LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY, LAGGING BEHIND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND THEIR MEANS. IN ADDITION, THE GFS/GEFS DRAGGED AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA FROM THE NORTHEAST WHEREAS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHEARED IT TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER PORTION WELL NORTHWEST OF THE NORTH SLOPE. OPTED TO SIDE WITH ONGOING WPC AND ENSEMBLE CONTINUITY WHICH FAVORED THE 00Z ECMWF/EC ENS MEAN AND THE CANADIAN. BY NEXT WEEK, ECMWF WAS WEAKER (AND FARTHER EAST) THAN MOST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THAT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF (EAST OF THE AKPEN). ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN OFFERED A PREFERRED POSITION AND LIED IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN FARTHEST WEST IN THE BERING SEA. COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD, SETTING UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE. GEFS REFORECAST M-CLIMATE PERCENTILES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOUT THE 99.5 LEVEL FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE NEXT WEEK AND PW ANOMALIES PER THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES RISE TO ABOUT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. FRACASSO