ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1101 AM EST SUN MAR 05 2017 VALID 12Z THU MAR 09 2017 - 12Z MON MAR 13 2017 MODELS REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OMEGA-BLOCK TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DAYS 4-8 AND CENTER OF THE BLOCK TO DRIFT WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE SHIFT IS RATHER SMALL. PERSISTENCE OF THE BLOCK IS PERHAPS THE MOST PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...LIKELY ALLOWING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK IF CURRENT GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...BEFORE POSSIBLY SWITCHING BACK. MODEL TRENDS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOW THE GFS/GEFS CAMP OF SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MORE SUPPRESSED WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BLOCK AND ALSO SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE BLOCK LEADING THE WAY...WITH THE ECMWF CAMP MOSTLY CATCHING UP. THIS MIGHT FAVOR CONTINUING TO LEAN IN THE GFS/GEFS MEAN DIRECTIONS...WHICH IS THE CURRENT PREFERENCE. THIS CHOICE HAS MORE MEANINGFUL IMPLICATIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS/GEFS MORE STUBBORN IN MAINTAINING THE HIGH PORTION OF THE BLOCK...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHIFTS IT SOUTHWARD TO THE ALEUTIANS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO MORE LIKE THE GFS/GEFS MEAN...THUS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE PREFERENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AS THE SPREAD REMAINS MANAGEABLE AND SPREAD ABOUT MODERATE EVEN BY DAY 7-8 STANDARDS...WITH THE PREVAILING LONGWAVE PATTERN APPEARING RATHER STABLE AND PREDICTABLE. JAMES