ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 241 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 VALID 12Z WED MAR 29 2017 - 12Z SUN APR 2 2017 THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE STATE WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WEST OF THE STATE AND INTO SIBERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST/NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME CROSSING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITH SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES. A BLEND OF THE EURO AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH THE PERIOD PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT ON PLACEMENT FOR BOTH THE SURFACE AND 500MB PROGS, WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, EURO, AND CMC CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DROPPING WELL INTO THE 960S. THEREFORE, SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS INCLUDED IN THE BLEND TO DEPICT A STRONGER INTENSITY THAN IS SHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE AND THE MANUAL PROGS WERE ADJUSTED FURTHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN COAST AND THE ALEUTIANS AS A STORM SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE GULF. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED APPROACHES THE ALEUTIANS WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE, AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN WEAKENS OVER WESTERN ALASKA. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST, ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY. IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT, EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS RETREATING TOWARDS THE NORTH. AREAS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COLD AS THIS REGION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. D. Hamrick