ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 331 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017 VALID 12Z WED AUG 16 2017 - 12Z SUN AUG 20 2017 SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS WELL-FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TROUGHING OVER THE MAINLAND NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD THIS IN PLACE, BUT ALLOW LESS-PREDICTABLE FEATURES TO MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE YET TO LATCH ONTO ONE FEATURE THAT WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD, RATHER MAKING DIFFERENT ONES AMPLIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST WHICH BUCKLE THE FLOW HERE OR THERE. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO SHIFTED AROUND BUT MUCH LESS SO BECAUSE OF THE BLENDED MEMBERS. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT OUT TO ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE THE 12Z GFS BECAME AN APPARENT OUTLIER WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING TOWARD KODIAK NEXT SAT. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AND GEFS MEAN THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING THE GFS IN FAVOR OF INCREASED ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING, KEEPING THE BIGGER SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA. FRACASSO