Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EST Thu Feb 01 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 05 2018 - 12Z Fri Feb 09 2018 Upper ridging and sfc high pressure will dominate mainland Alaska through the middle of next week. Pacific system Mon-Tue will stay just south of the Aleutians and South Central as it pushes into the Panhandle on Wednesday. By next Thu/Fri, the elongated NW-SE ridge axis will get stretched enough to allow a North Pacific system to lift northward through the Aleutians with the parent low in the central/western Bering Sea. The ensembles show good agreement with the overall pattern evolution but within that remains a good deal of spread as far as system timing/track/strength. Felt that a consensus approach would suffice, with more deterministic weight to start (12Z/06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF, mostly) with an increased weight of the 06Z GEFS mean and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean by the middle of next week (to about 60%). This maintained more detail to the start of the forecast with the lead system into the Gulf then smoothed out the Bering/Aleutian system next Wed-Fri. Kept a steady pace northward with the fronts given the southerly flow through most of the atmosphere. Dry period for most of the interior with variable temperatures -- 850mb temperature anomalies will be near to above average but that may not be realized at the surface in some valley locations under inversions. Used an ensemble blend to account for variability. Precipitation will focus along the southern coast into the Panhandle with the lead system, heaviest over the southern Panhandle near the advancing warm front. Rain may then be heavy over the eastern Aleutians with the second system (including south-facing upslope-favored regions on the AkPen and Kodiak) Wed-Fri. Fracasso