Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 PM EST Wed Feb 07 2018

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 11 2018 - 12Z Thu Feb 15 2018

...Guidance and Predictability Assessment...

The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily composed
from a composite of the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means days 4-8. Leaned
weighting in favor of the ECMWF ensemble mean in this blend to
better match deterministic models embedded system trends. Opted to
also include input the 00/12 UTC ECMWF days 4-7 in a period of
better forecast clustering. This maintains WPC product continuity
and adds some enhanced detail consistent with a pattern having
average forecast predictability.  


...Pattern Overview and Weather Highlights/Threats...

Amplified mid-upper ridging over the interior/north slope is
expected to breakdown Sunday/Monday with trough energy aloft and
surface frontal systems approach. Height falls and increased
moisture inflow may support locally enhanced precipitation for
srn/sern Alaska with lead inflow and to a lesser extent overtop
into the interior into early next week. Additional low approaches
may renew weather focus up into the nrn Gulf of AK and inland into
swrn, srn, and sern portions of the state into next midweek.
Upstream flow amplification will meanwhile offer potential
development and threat with a slow approach of a deepened low from
off nern Asia to the Bering Sea.

Schichtel