Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 18 2018 - 12Z Thu Mar 22 2018

...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment and Weather
Highlights/Threats...

The 12 UTC GFS and 00 UTC ECMWF along with ensembles seem
reasonably clustered into Sunday. The 00 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble
means in particular remain quite compatable next week.
Accordingly...prefer a blended forecast solution as primarily
derived from these guidance pieces whose resultant output
maintains good WPC continuity.

In this scenario, arctic mid-upper level trough progression and
associated height falls will accompany frontal passage and modest
snow potential from the North Slope down into the interior ending
Sunday. Underneath...lead energy splitting eastward meanwhile
leads to a modest surface low/frontal system in the northern Gulf
of Alaska this weekend with limited southern and southeastern
Alaska precipitation.

The active pattern reloads further upstream where there is a
strong guidance signal for deep low development potential over the
Bering Sea this weekend into early next week. Downstream
propagation of energy should lead to some enhanced flow into
western Alaska and the interior/North Slope as per low and frontal
system approach.

Undercutting triple point low development and height falls also
splits underneath to the Gulf of Alaska early next week to support
limited southern to southeastern Alaska precipitation. A deepening
low/active weather upstream over the western Bering Sea next
midweek may act to amplify downstream flow. This could lead to
eastern Gulf of Alaska closed mid-upper level trough/low
development with lower atmospheric frontogeneis response and
increasingly unsettled maritime conditions.

Schichtel