Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 130 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 19 2018 - 12Z Fri Mar 23 2018 ...Active wintery flow into western and interior Alaska early next week... ...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment and Weather Highlights/Threats... The 06 UTC GFS/GEFS mean and 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean seem reasonably well clustered into Wednesday. This is an improvement over the last few days but some run to run continuity issues still cap forecast confidence at average levels. These ensemble means in particular remain quite compatable through later next week. Accordingly...prefer a blended forecast solution as primarily derived from these guidance pieces as pattern flow transitions to less progressive/more blocky. In this scenario, there remains a strong guidance signal for low development over the Bering Sea this weekend/early next week. Downstream energy propagation will lead to moist flow with an unusally well organized low/frontal system inland push offering widespread enhanced snows into western Alaska and interior/North Slope. Undercutting triple point low development and height falls also splits underneath to the Gulf of Alaska early next week to support limited southern/southeastern Alaska precipitation and several secondary cold surges into mid-late week as high pressure builds over the interior stronger than continuity. This is supported upstream as a deepening low/active weather over the stormy western Bering Sea and Aleutians mid-late next week acts to amplify downstream flow. This leads to the eastern Gulf of Alaska closed mid-upper level trough/low development with lower atmospheric frontogeneis response and unsettled maritime conditions. Schichtel