Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 15 2018 - 12Z Thu Apr 19 2018 Models and ensembles remain in good agreement on the longwave pattern over Alaska next week as a blocking upper high slips northwestward into the Beaufort Sea and then Arctic Ocean. First system will be moving northward through the Bering Sea on Sunday with eventual development of a new low pressure just south of the AKPen. Most recent GFS runs have been farther north than the multi-center ensemble consensus and the 00Z ECMWF/Canadian and opted to rely on the ensemble consensus as that sfc low drops southeastward next Tuesday. Next system would enter the Bering late Monday and head eastward as the upper high drifts northwestward to its north. ECMWF was on the slower side while the 06Z GFS and 00Z Canadian were quicker, in line with a consensus of the 06Z GEFS and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean, which was preferred. Overall, consensus approach worked well. This takes the front eastward into the Gulf late next Wednesday with triple point low moving past Kodiak. To the north, ensembles favor a defined upper high moving northwestward and favored the ECMWF over the GFS/Canadian with that orientation. Fracasso