Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 14 2018 - 12Z Mon Jun 18 2018

...Guidance Assessment and Weather Highlights...

Models and ensembles agree that flow amplification will act to
lift a storm system northward toward the AKpen Thursday into next
weekend. This poses a maritime threat of high winds and rough
seas. Heavy precipitation will work into the AKpen and
southwest/southern Alaska as deep layered moisture feeds ahead of
the deepened low.

Farther north, mid-later week arctic trough/low and height fall
energy digs southward over the north slope and west-central
interior. Expect post-frontal cooling and an unsettled weather
pattern with scattered precipitation that could become more
widespread with potential amplification on the deeper side of the
full envelope of model and ensembles solutions. Guidance remains
quite varied with the extent of northern stream amplification and
is especially problematic with potential southern stream phasing
issues days 7/8 as its aforementioned low lifts through the AKpen
into southwestern Ak and the interior. WPC progs show potential
for some phasing and an enhanced cooled northern AK and interior
weather threat given expected organization and moisture, but
forecast predictability is well below average. Accordingly, the
WPC product suite was mainly derived from a blend of the latest
GEFS/ECMWF ensembles. This forecast methodology provides max
forecast consistency for this forecast period.

Schichtel

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html