Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 13 2018 - 12Z Wed Oct 17 2018

...Weather Highlights/Hazards...

The pattern favors near to above average temperatures for much of
Alaska, especially from the Alaska Range to the North Slope.
Heights will build above average over the mainland downstream from
a deep Aleutians to AKpen/Southern Bering Sea closed trough/stormy
low and lead ejecting northern Gulf of Alaska low energies. A
heavy rainfall threat will focus from the AKpen/Southwest AK to
south-central AK and the Panhandle with multiple days of sustained
and deep layered southerly flow. Locally disruptive snow/ice is
also likely where cold enough (terrain and inland), but much less
precipitation north of the the Alaska Range to the North Slope.

...Guidance and Predictability Assessment...

Well clustered model and ensemble forecasts bolster forecast
confidence to above normal levels for the next week. Accordingly,
the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived
from a composite blend of the latest 12 UTC GFS/GEFS mean and 00
UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean, leaning blend weighting gradually
in favor of ensemble means over time consistent with slowly
growing forecast spread. This solution was collaborated with local
forecast offices and holds good WPC continuity.

Schichtel

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html